The intermediate “flux” period in market creation is painful. There are many entrenched interests that want to keep competition at bay. However we all must agree on basic tenants when operating within existing markets, or we will continue to waste valuable time, capital and people. Investors in emerging markets must find ways to coordinate and discuss conflict more effectively. We must encourage governments to create policies and regulations which enable effective information flow, networks, and markets. As Brazil demonstrates, it’s much better to have a slice of a very big pie.. than control a share of a very small one.
Today’s pre-paid dynamics may be the tipping point by which 3 party networks begin to overtake V/MA in growth. A trend that will accelerate when other business models require “control”. This next phase will be centered around merchant/consumer transaction data, which will begin to unlock the advertising revenue pool, which is almost 4 times larger than that of payments.
Payments and core banking will become a “dumb pipe” business unless Banks create value and assume a larger orchestration role. POS Payments are the central feature of a transaction account, if banks loose this relationship they will be in a poor position to orchestrate. 4 party networks are very, very hard to change.